The SAFERS "Fire propagation model" intelligent service aims to predict the spread and potential impact of an active fire using Earth observation data. It offers on-demand fire propagation forecasts, helping to anticipate fire behaviour, develop attack strategies, plan evacuations, and simulate fire-fighting tactics.
Key features of the service include the provision of digital terrain model and land cover data, fire perimeter with different burn probabilities, as well as fireline spread rate and intensity maps.
This SAFERS service is based on CIMA's PROPAGATOR model, a stochastic cellular automaton model that considers factors such as topography, vegetation cover, wind speed and direction, fuel moisture, and other parameters to estimate the probability of fire spread. The model's capabilities have been validated by successfully reproducing previous Mediterranean fires, demonstrating its usefulness for fire management.